I’ll minimize to the chase as a result of I do know most of you’re on the verge of chapter at age 19 since you acquired in at $450 on GME and questioning why its not going to $1000 after you paper handed at $439 and bought.
Yandex is a multinational company that operates primarily in Russia, Europe and ex-Soviet bloc providing a variety of providers. Primarily their revenues are from being a search engine, taxi providers and different segments. At the moment they provide greater than 70 providers (Streaming subscriptions like Netflix, Yandex.Music like Spotify, Classifieds adverts, self-managed subscriptions for advert campaigns, self driving automobiles, deliveries, market and a fuck ton extra)
However first, fundamentals.
That is that can assist you sleep higher at night time so you possibly can fear extra about your 35c 2/19 AMC calls you blew your cash into.
I do not like re-inventing loads of stuff so that is merely rules I’ve adopted from Grand-Daddy Graham
Sufficient dimension (gross sales a minimum of 700m)
As you possibly can see Yandex has been seeing constant income development since 2017. Not too long ago, its supply service has begun turning a revenue and is broadly used among the many residents of Russia.
Learn that once more. A Taxi/meals supply service is popping a revenue. That could be a large accomplishment. Have you ever seen Uber or DoorDash flip a revenue?
Robust Monetary Situation (Belongings 2x > liabilities)
Examine the 2018 & 2019 numbers. Now, do you need to know one thing else? They presently have sufficient money (1.1b$) to cowl all their present complete liabilities or all their convertible (one or the opposite) at any time they want.
As well as, they’ve repeated of their monetary statements that the liquid money they’ve is sufficient to cowl working prices ought to the pandemic proceed.
This tells me they are not gonna lay down like a bitch and cry to daddy when a white swan curve ball is thrown at them (I am taking a look at you airways)
Earnings stability (Some earnings in every of previous 10 years)
Uninterrupted Dividend funds in earlier 20 years
No dividends paid ever. Fails this one
A minimal improve of 30% in EPS in previous 10 years through the use of the start and ending three years as comparability
Earnings elevated by 68% in earlier 10 years
Free Money Move
That is their free money circulate from earlier three years and TTM. You all the time need to see a optimistic money circulate to make sure that firms have sufficient liquidity to remain afloat and maintain them from issuing new shares to boost capital. Spikes in money circulate from development firms will not be unusual, it’s primarily as a consequence of regular acquisitions, restructuring, re-investments made. Present excellent shares: ~345m
Now, on to a few of their providers.
That is only a transient overview as their enterprise mannequin is fairly intensive and by this time you beautiful bastards have already purchased OTM calls expiring this weekend. (Do not yo, this can be a long run play)
Grocery supply inside 5-12 min is the aim. Some websites are attaining this already
Takt time per grocery merchandise bagged is 10s. Takt time is the period of time it takes to finish one course of.
Groceries are then transferred to drivers for supply (suppose Amazon Prime Now)
With a purpose to scale back prices, further lavkas in excessive focus areas will probably be constructed.
Not all however some Lavkas are kitchens the place precise meals is cooked
Yandex Rover is making deliveries (actively) in three completely different areas. At the moment a take a look at however with the aim of going 100% driverless for deliveries and scale back prices.
Their present major development section. They’ve just lately acquired Sberbank’s stake (Russia’s most influential and considered one of largest banks) and now personal 100% of market. Their aim is to rival different market and ecommerce firms equivalent to Ozon.ru
They presently have success facilities and are within the means of constructing further ones. Doesn’t need to retailer its personal Yandex branded merchandise however needs to grow to be a pure market that provides success providers for sellers and makes it simpler for buyer (cliche, however suppose Amazon)
Affords supply providers to residential and industrial prospects (stuff starting from paperwork to pianos)
Greater than 100okay deliveries made per day on different prospects orders
“Supply with a click on” which delivers the orders to close by lavkas (suppose Amazon locker). Supply objectives are to be inside 15 min.
Not a lot to say right here however theyre providing cloud providers to firms. Essential competitors Amazon AWS
Identical as above. Essential competitor Google Maps
Yandex’s devoted AI. At the moment has 45+m customers, primarily in audio system, navigation, Yandex App
Their precise search engine that makes up bulk of their revenues.
What I cherished seeing of their latest monetary statements is that whereas search engine revenues saved rising, their TAC (site visitors acquisition prices, the associated fee Yandex pays for others to refer prospects to them) is reducing. What does this imply? It means prospects are going on to Yandex as an alternative of utilizing a medium. Assume, why the fuck until you are a boomer would you go to google, seek for ‘amazon’ when you possibly can go to amazon instantly? That is really a legit drawback Google faces as Amazon cuts down on their revenues by not permitting prospects to see Google Adverts.
TAC decreased 9 months ended Sep 19 to Sep 20 by 16% whereas complete advert revenues grew by 1%. Learn that once more god rattling it. They’re paying 16% much less whereas sustaining their advert revenues, their greatest section!
Yandex Self Driving Group
Yo. This shit. Is. Legit.
Let me let you know in regards to the streets of fucking Moscow. Dust, snow, murky (or none in any respect) site visitors lanes, chaotic drivers, alleys tighter than your uncles anus when JNJ took one other -1.5% hit on his portfolio. They usually STILL managed to develop an autonomous driving car that navigates by way of all that shit with out person enter.
They presently have logged over 5.5 million miles utilizing autonomous driving in Tel Aviv, Michigan and Moscow. That could be a large fucking deal. Additionally they have a partnership with Hyundai.
Nonetheless, coming straight from their engineers it’s going to take a number of years earlier than absolutely autonomous driving can EXCEED human driving. This implies it’s going to take a number of years for perfection, whos to say gross sales cant occur earlier than that?
They sponsor instructional camps and applications that target exhausting sciences in Russia (Physics, arithmetic, engineering) they usually proceed to decide on expertise from these areas. This lessens the reliance on overseas specialists from the US/Europe to develop their merchandise
They focus closely on customer support and actually perceive their core viewers. I’m telling you, Russians (particularly these born in Soviet period) is TOUGH to just accept expertise. And but they’ve achieved it by Yandex.taxi and Yandex.Lavka .
I am kinda of a homosexual bear for our inventory market proper now, I really feel like we’re working on fumes with the stimulus money and may see some excessive volatility briefly time period in US shares.
Establishments have loaded up on Yandex since late 2020. Do not ever take this as a tell-tale signal to purchase, however fairly as one half to contemplate
Homosexual Bear circumstances (on this case I’m additionally a homosexual bear)
Russia will not be secure politically – issues may be achieved underneath the desk.
True, honest threat. However roughly the identical factor in US besides it is official (lobbying, insider buying and selling, congress hearings which can be only a facade)
They’re too over-extended of their segments. They’re specializing in suddenly as an alternative of specializing in what they’ll do rather well.
I’d be involved about this if their money circulate, revenues and web incomes could be reducing YoY. Nonetheless their present trajectory is that theyre persistently rising. Additionally, give it some thought extra merely – if they’ve these specialists engaged on all these segments, they’ll simply promote them off for a revenue. Yandex.Pay was a cashless cost system that was 100% bought off to Sberbank. It’s one thing that Yandex created after which re-invested these proceedings to their completely different ventures like Yandex.Market
What else you bought? I’m legitimately as my overconfident ass has 50% of his portfolio on this.
20okay in shares, 4k in calls.
This isn’t a brief time period play. Play at your individual threat boys & women this is not recommendation however some DD thatll in all probability get buried by the 10,000 GME/AMC posts.